Executive summary

India aims to become a Viksit Bharat by 2047, with an economy valued at USD 30 trillion (Ministry of External Affairs 2024). Cities in India are currently the engines of this growth, contributing about 60 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) (NITI Aayog and Asian Development Bank 2022). India is also expected to undergo one of the largest urbanisations globally, with more than 416 million people projected to move to cities by 2050 (García 2023). As urbanisation accelerates and lifestyles change, Indian cities are expected to generate approximately 435 million tonnes of municipal solid waste (MSW) by 2050 (Khan et al. 2025). In the absence of effective waste management systems, and under the prevailing ‘take– make–waste’ model, this growth in waste generation can exacerbate several local and global challenges, including pollution, urban flooding, biodiversity loss, and climate change.

A transition to a circular economy is therefore both urgent and imperative, and it provides a pathway to effectively utilise resources, reduce pollution, and create green jobs for the future. Given their extensive resource use and concentrated populations, cities play a crucial role in embedding and scaling circular economy principles. Advancing circularity in cities will be pivotal to India’s growth trajectory and to building liveable, clean, and resilient urban centres.

Circularity in organic waste management can enable better resource recovery and energy security

The organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW), which includes kitchen waste, market waste (vegetables, meat, fruits, and flowers), and horticulture waste, accounts for about half of the total MSW generation in India (MoHUA 2022). Embedded within OFMSW are valuable resources, such as water, nutrients, and clean energy, which can be recovered through processes such as composting and biomethanation (Ddiba et al. 2022). When harnessed effectively, these processes generate nutrient-rich compost that can substitute for chemical fertilisers, while biogas or biomethane can contribute to clean energy and reduce energy imports. Further, the valorisation of OFMSW can reduce methane emissions and prevent contamination of recyclable materials, such as paper, cardboard, and plastics.

Our review reveals that approximately 16 ministries and government bodies are involved in promoting and implementing multiple organic waste management initiatives, encompassing 9 programmes, 3 policy guidelines, and 7 schemes. Flagship initiatives, such as Swachh Bharat Mission–Urban (SBM-U), the National Bioenergy Programme, and Galvanising Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan (GOBARdhan), among others, have begun shifting the focus from waste disposal towards resource recovery. We also found that there has been a concerted push to create a favourable environment for biomethanation.

This study addresses a key research gap by assessing how different approaches to organic waste management, including shifts in the treatment mix from composting towards biomethanation, can support India’s Viksit Bharat vision, and what ecosystem levers are needed to enable this scale-up. To address this, we developed a strategic roadmap for organic waste circularity and assessed three scenarios using sigmoid curve modelling: the business-as usual (BAU) scenario, the accelerated policy scenario (APS), and the ambitious green transition scenario (AGTS). These scenarios set targets based on the rate of collection and processing of organic waste with varied allocations of treatment capacities for biomethanation and composting by 2047. For each scenario, we quantified the investment required to establish the facilities, the market opportunity for the end products, the job creation potential, and the emissions reduction potential.

We conducted expert interviews and stakeholder consultations with diverse stakeholders, including policymakers, private-sector actors, academia, financial institutions, and domain experts, to identify current gaps in the ecosystem that must be addressed to unlock this potential. Insights from these consultations can provide strategic foresight to policymakers across ministries, such as the MoHUA, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), and the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG), as well as for business and city leaders seeking to harness organic waste as a driver of India’s circular economy transition.

Key findings

Currently, biomethanation and composting are the two most widely adopted organic waste processing techniques in India, accounting for approximately 4 per cent and 96 per cent of treatment capacity, respectively (MoHUA n.d.). Beyond these two dominant techniques, other waste processing options, such as black soldier fly and briquetting, are available, but their uptake remains limited. Figure ES1 presents the economic and environmental potential of integrating circularity into OFMSW management across three scenarios.

Investment potential: Under a BAU scenario, current investments in waste processing are projected to increase to USD 4.5 billion by 2047, up from the current baseline of USD 0.9, with around half of the waste remaining untreated. In contrast, under the APS and AGTS, investment opportunities would increase significantly, reaching USD 24.3 billion and USD 30.2 billion, respectively, by 2047.

Market potential: The market size for end products reflects this shift. From USD 10.0 billion under the BAU scenario, the market could expand fivefold to USD 50.6 billion under APS and further to USD 61.5 billion under AGTS by 2047.

Job growth: India’s strides in organic waste management are expected to shape job creation over the coming decades. Under APS, the sector could potentially create 2.6 million jobs by 2047. Under AGTS, direct job creation is estimated at 1.9 million, slightly lower due to the greater contribution of biomethanation, which is characterised by higher levels of mechanisation than composting.

Emissions reduction: Waste has been one of the fastest-growing contributors to India’s emissions, increasing by 226 per cent between 1994 and 2020 (MoEFCC 2024). Under the BAU scenario, emissions from the sector could reach 119.5 MtCO₂e by 2047. Under the APS and AGTS, emissions from the waste sector are reduced, while the use of end products in sectors such as agriculture, transport, and industry enables additional emissions offsets of 67.5 MtCO₂e and 100.5 MtCO₂e, respectively. Together, these outcomes position OFMSW management as a key lever for driving low-carbon growth and supporting India’s net-zero ambitions.

Figure ES1. USD 60 billion+ market opportunity can be unlocked by scaling organic waste treatment in India by 2047

Note: Under AGTS the number of jobs reduce due to a shift towards biomethanation, which is more automated and capital-intensive than composting. Negative emissions in the APS and AGTS scenarios arise from diverting waste from dumpsites and using end products across agriculture, transport, and industry to displace fossil fuels and chemical fertilisers.

There is significant potential for a circular economy in OFMSW to drive economic growth, create millions of green jobs, provide a low-carbon pathway, and support cleaner cities. However, unlocking these opportunities requires a holistic, multi-stakeholder approach that accounts for the range of challenges and levers. Drawing on our analysis and insights from stakeholder consultations, we identified certain barriers, including delays in project approvals, weak enforcement of waste management rules, variability in feedstock quality and quantity, competition for end products, limited local capacity, lack of data on generation and composition, and low levels of awareness. At the same time, we identified certain enablers, including policy continuity, research promotion, local manufacturing, innovative financing mechanisms, digital public infrastructure, and targeted capacity building and training initiatives. We have mapped these barriers and enablers across six different themes and provided a summary in Figure ES2.

Figure ES2. Barriers and enablers associated with organic waste management across different themes

Note: R&D – Research and Development; CBG – Compressed Biogas; PPP – Public–Private Partnership;
ULB – Urban Local Body; InvITs – Infrastructure Investment Trusts, and HAMs – Hybrid Annuity Models

Recommendations and call to action

Translating this potential into reality will require coordinated action from stakeholders across governments, private enterprises, academic institutions, multilateral banks, and civil society to address systemic barriers and translate enabling levers into policies, infrastructure, markets, and mindsets. As India prepares to host the World Economy Forum in 2026, it has a unique opportunity to showcase progress in the sector and strengthen international collaboration to advance the circular economy agenda as a pathway for climate action. To support this transition, we propose the following seven action points:

• Ensuring optimum feedstock quantity and quality for plant sustainability: High-quality, source-segregated feedstock is critical for the success of a plant. Central ministries such as the MoHUA have developed model requests for proposals (RfPs) and concessionaire agreements that provide templates and guidelines for service-level agreements, including key performance indicators (KPIs) and feedstock responsibilities (MoHUA n.d.). These model documents and advisories need wide dissemination, and cities should integrate and adopt them into their service contracts. Urban local bodies (ULBs) and private players across the supply chain must ensure stronger coordination between waste collectors, sorting stations, and plant operators to avoid feedstock contamination. Finally, civil society organisations (CSOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), in collaboration with ULBs, can support the development and evaluation of information, education, and communication (IEC) initiatives for citizens and workers to improve segregation levels.
• Creating an up-to-date database and digital infrastructure: Data plays a crucial role in planning and assessment for waste management. However, cities continue to rely on decade-old waste-related data, such as generation and composition, or depend on generalised approaches. Policymakers must ensure periodic waste characterisation and make this a precondition for project approvals and fund disbursement. ULBs should leverage digital infrastructure, such as dashboards or integrated command and control centres (ICCCs), for waste management operations across the supply chain. The private sector should invest in advanced monitoring tools, such as real-time analytics enabled by Internet of Things (IoT) devices at waste facilities, to track and optimise operations. Academia and civil society can support cities by conducting field surveys to collect granular data.
• Building workforce capacities and having a responsibility matrix: The integrated capacity-building system under Mission Karmayogi should be leveraged to mandate training for officers working in ULBs. In parallel, expanding existing training institutes, such as Biogas Development and Training Centres (BDTCs) and Regional Centres for Urban and Environmental Studies (RCUESs), will be critical. Further, institutions such as the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), and others should develop specialised training modules and courses addressing technological developments, improved technical and operational efficiency, and skill enhancement in data management and analysis. Similarly, CSOs should also be actively engaged to support building the capacity of informal workers, self-help groups (SHGs), women-led enterprises, and others.
• Improving infrastructure procurement and contract implementation: There is a need to shift from lowest-cost (L1) selection towards quality and cost-based selection (QCBS). Greater emphasis must be placed on quality rather than the weight or quantity of waste, and these could be potentially linked with payment disbursement of the contractors. Further, ULBs should ensure adherence to the model RfPs and concessionaire agreements developed by the MoHUA, which clearly define clauses, roles, and responsibilities.
• Enhancing financial viability of urban waste management systems: Many ULBs, particularly in medium and smaller cities, rely heavily on central and state grants and face challenges in generating their own revenue for maintenance and sustaining the waste operations. Policymakers should enable innovative financing mechanisms, such as urban infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs) and hybrid annuity models (HAMs) under public– private partnership (PPP) models. State-level credit guarantees can help de-risk projects and promote green bonds. In parallel, ULBs should also strengthen their revenue streams by improving user fee collection, including through the integration of waste charges with property tax or utility bills.
• Strengthening the offtake of end products: Scaling biogas and composting requires stronger offtake mechanisms and quality assurance mechanisms, such as periodic reviews of biogas procurement prices, compressed biogas (CBG) blending obligations, and development of pipeline infrastructure to support industries. This should be complemented by quality assurance, mandating that end products are tested at National Accreditation Board for Testing and Calibration Laboratories (NABL)-accredited laboratories. ULBs must also create local demand for organic fertilisers to be used in public spaces, such as parks, gardens, nurseries, and initiate collaborations with CSOs to undertake behaviour change communication (BCC) and IEC to drive demand towards compost and biogas.
• Supporting research and development (R&D) for technological advancement and international collaborations: Policymakers, academic institutions, and industry players must collaborate to build an ecosystem that supports R&D, local manufacturing, and also brings world-class technologies and investments to India. Academic institutions, such as the BARC and the IITs, can advance development in areas such as multi-feeder digesters and pre-treatment technologies that can be tailored to diverse conditions of organic waste. Indialed initiatives, such as the Global Biofuel Alliance or Cities Coalition for Circularity (C-3), can support knowledge sharing, showcase innovations, and forge new partnerships required to strengthen the sector.