Executive summary

The demand for cooling in India is rising rapidly because of rising temperatures and increasing urbanisation. The India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) estimates an eleven-fold increase in the demand for space cooling, with penetration of room air-conditioners (RACs) rising from 8 per cent to 40 per cent between 2017–18 and 2037–38 (MoEFCC 2019). This means that nearly 500 million additional RACs (in a highgrowth scenario) are yet to be installed in India’s building stock during this period. Additionally, it is estimated that nearly 600 GW of additional power generation capacity is required to meet India’s stock of room air-conditioners (RAC) in 2050 (WEF 2019). The requirement of power to operate these units, and the use of high-global-warming-potential (GWP) refrigerants used for cooling, are sources of primary and secondary emissions that contribute to global warming.

The India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) acknowledges the role of servicing sector in enhancing energy efficiency of RACs and preventing refrigerant leakages. It is estimated that regular servicing can curtail up to 50 per cent reduction in an air-conditioner’s performance (UNEP 2018). The servicing sector is also a source of up to 40 per cent of annual refrigerant demand in India (ICAP 2019). Thus, the ability of the servicing sector to deliver sustainability gains for the RAC sector is significant – it can help deal with refrigerant overuse for servicing, and bring operational energy-efficiency closer to the designed benchmarks.

But how many skilled technicians does India require to deliver climate-friendly cooling? What is the cost of training and infrastructure required to skill and upskill this workforce? What can be done to ensure an effective and market-ready technician workforce? This study aims to answer these questions, and estimates the number of skilled technicians required to install, service, and repair the stock of RACs in India across the milestone years: 2030, 2037, and 2047. It finds that India must skill around 2 million and 5.6 million RAC technicians by 2037 and 2047 respectively to deliver energy-efficient, climate-resilient cooling.

Key results

• The stock of RAC units in India is expected to grow from around 66 million in 2022-23 to around 345 million and 956 million by 2036-37 and 2046-47 respectively. The growth in annual sales is estimated based on multiple consultations with industry, and in conjunction with findings of the ICAP. These numbers account for the rebound in RAC sales after a brief slump during COVID-19, in addition to other trends anticipated by industry in view of technology transitions. We have assumed a 15 per cent CAGR for the period 2022–27, which reduces to 12 per cent from 2028 to 2037, and further to 10 per cent between 2038 and 2047.

Figure ES1. Estimated demand of service technicians in RAC sector

• The demand for skilled RAC technicians will rise from 0.37 million in 2022-23 to around 2 million and 5.6 million by 2036-37 and 2046- 47 respectively. This includes the number of technicians required for installation of new units as well as regular servicing and repairs for the operational units.
• The cost of skilling RAC technicians will be around INR 2200 crore and INR 14250 crore by 2037 and 2047 respectively. These costs are estimated based on the assumptions that each technician will undergo a short-term training (STT) of 200 hours and a refresher training called recognition of prior learning (RPL) of 80 hours in their working life.

Recommendations

With a view to create a trained and market-ready workforce of service technicians in the HVAC sector, and following our consultations with relevant stakeholders in the HVAC sector, we have arrived at the following recommendations.

• Rectify the curriculum-market mismatch: Most ITI graduates lack practical skills and familiarity with evolving technologies and refrigerants, making them unprepared for realworld servicing demands. Employers report that new hires often require up to six months of additional training. This should be addressed through co-developing up-to-date curricula with industry participation and putting in place a mechanism for systematic and periodic updation of curricula to respond to changes on account of the refrigerant and technology transitions. In addition to technical training, focus should also be on imparting entrepreneurial and soft skills such as communication and interpersonal skills.
• Undertake initiatives towards consumer awareness for adopting good servicing practices: Technicians often lack incentives to adopt good servicing practices, as customers prefer to get the job done for the lowest possible fee. Consumer awareness about Good Servicing Practices (GSPs) and their economic benefits— such as improved efficiency and reduced refrigerant leakages—must be increased to build demand for quality service. This is crucial for both consumer and technician safety, as well as for enhancing the unit’s energy efficiency and overall cooling performance.
• Adopt a unified certification programme for RAC servicing sector: The certification of technicians based on a robust assessment of their skills level, is essential for maintaining high standards of quality, safety, and efficiency of RAC units. To enforce certification standards, the government could mandate that only certified technicians perform specific tasks like refrigerant handling or high-efficiency system installations.

The certification should also provide career progression opportunities for the technicians and should be integrated with employment opportunities in collaboration with the industry.

Conclusion

This study clearly shows that a huge number of technicians will be entering the workforce in the years to come, especially towards the later milestone year of 2037, with a large jump seen towards 2047. Advanced planning for the upgradation and execution of skilling program and budgeting will be key for policy makers and industry to ensure a market-ready skilled workforce, which can leverage the sustainability potential of sustainable cooling technologies as they develop. Alongside that, RAC users need to be made more aware about the adoption of good practices and periodic preventive maintenance. The demand for trained technicians from among RAC users will be a key market push for technicians to undergo training and certification, while securing better income.